David Daroczi, government spokesperson, rejected on Friday (21 March) the speculation that MP Ferenc Gyurcsany may resign in June in order to head up the Hungarian section of the South Steam gas pipeline project. The speculation about Gyurcsnay's intentions to leave politics was mentioned by the right-leaning Magyar Nemzet, citing unnamed sources close to the government. In our view, it should not be surprising if similar speculations appear in the near future, especially, as political noise increased after the government's huge defeat on the recent referendum. Apart from Gyurcsany's fate in MSZP and in the government, one should expect to see rumours about government reshuffles. Tensions in the ruling coalition have also increased recently, after SZDSZ, the junior governing party, once again mentioned the possibility of leaving the government due to falling reform momentum and, especially, the weakening support for the implementation for reforms in healthcare insurance system.

On a related note, Ildiko Lendvai, MSZP parliamentary group leader, told Nepszava that MSZP is not preparing to replace Gyurcsany. In her view, sacking the prime minister would be a "very cheap and harmful solution". She confirmed that MSZP is planning to propose some changes to the legislation that allows the introduction of private capital in healthcare insurance funds, but she ruled out the possibility that the law would be entirely withdrawn. According to the unofficial information of InfoRadio, referring to a meeting of MSZP leaders, Gyurcsany's position is safe at least until summer 2009, that is, until the elections for the European parliament. MSZP's ratings measured by opinion polls are catastrophic and the party will discuss how to restore public's confidence in an upcoming party meeting.

SZDSZ, the junior ruling coalition party, kicked off a new investigation into the 2007 party election irregularities, Csaba Juttner, head of the investigation committee, told MTI on Saturday (22 March). The new investigation was initiated after suspicions that one more person was involved in the attempt to rig the voting surfaced (numerous people are suspected to have voted instead of absent delegates at the 2007 party summit). The first internal investigation that was recently concluded found some irregularities, but there was no clear evidence of elections fraud. More importantly, it is still not clear which of the two candidates benefited from the irregular votes. Thus it has still not been concluded that irregularities had changed the outcome of the voting that put Koka at the helm of SZDSZ over Gabor Fodor, environment minister. SZDSZ leader Koka Janos said in February that the party elections that granted him the top position in SZDSZ might have been rigged. He also reiterated on several occasions that he is ready to take part in a new vote.

Fodor and three other members of SZDSZ's steering board criticized on Friday (21 March) the way the party was handling the situation and that no new party elections were called. They also suspended their memberships in the steering board, demanding new elections. Koka said that he would have won the first round of the SZDSZ leadership elections (the result was tied) if there had not been irregularities. According to him, Fodor and the others were taking political responsibility instead of those that cheated.

The latest events in SZDSZ confirm that tensions in the party did not calm down and the possibility of new party elections was not entirely dispersed. In our view, it is difficult to predict what would be the epilogue of this affair, which has cast shadow over SZDSZ' credibility.

The ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) acting group chairman Nihat Ergun said yesterday that a new set of regulations was needed to make party closures more difficult in Turkey, reports Zaman daily. According to Ergun, proposals will be completed in one or two days, and a constitutional amendment will be presented toward the end of the week to the head of parliament. The parliament may soon come to a halt because of party closure cases, Ergun said, pointing out that of the four parties currently represented in Parliament, three are currently facing closure cases. Ergun noted that there is an ongoing closure case against the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), an indictment has been prepared against AKP, and that the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has been under scrutiny for a possible closure case for supporting AKP to lift the headscarf ban by amending the constitution a month ago. "It has become imperative to redesign laws regarding party closures," Ergun said.

Meanwhile, the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (TUSIAD) has warned that existing polarisation in the society is about to transform into social trauma and called on all political parties to ease tension among the nation. In a written statement released yesterday TUSIAD asked the governing AKP to focus on agenda topics which aim to bring peace and prosperity to the nation. The initial assessment deadline of the AKP closure petition by Constitutional Court members will come in a few days. The Court may reject the indictment right away and end the turmoil that the country is for the last ten days, or accept to consider this and ask the AKP to defend itself in a written statement in one month. We may have to wait the Court’s decision this week to understand how Turkey’s political picture for the next six months or so will look like.

Interior Minister Rumen Petkov (BSP) admitted he had conversations with owners of alcohol companies, in relation to the ongoing scandal in the interior ministry, where a senior office in the anti-mob squad was arrested on charges of offering information to investigated companies. In particular, Ivan Ivanov, deputy director of the squad on fight against organised crime, responsible for economic crimes, was indicted because he had provided information on ongoing investigations for VAT and excise tax frauds. It was indicated that Ivanov was very unlikely to act without the knowledge of his superiors, such as Petkov and Valentin Tanev, chief secretary of the interior ministry (the position equals that of first deputy interior minister). Petkov underlined that he hadn’t provided any information to alcohol producers, though admitting that he had ties could be enough of a political argument for Prime Minister Sergey Stanishev (BSP) to let him go.

It is worth noting that existing documents suggest that Petkov was aware of the investigation against Ivanov for a few months, but he didn’t do anything, which might be considered as accessory. Furthermore, Petkov’s reputation has been always quite negative, so Stanishev’s move to release him could bring him only dividends. Finally, Stanishev has been always aware of Petkov’s strong positions in BSP, and even though Stanishev is formally chairman, his authority doesn’t spread too far, so removing Petkov could solidify Stanishev’s positions. It is yet unclear what will follow, as Stanishev’s position so far is to deny the accusations. Petkov clearly showed that he would not resign voluntarily, which suggests that if the prosecutor’s office finds additional evidence, or Ivanov pleads guilty, things could become extremely messy. Petkov is already under criticisms from the European Commission for his failure to reach progress in fight against corruption and organised crime. The handling of this particular case could be indicate on Bulgaria’s efforts to reduce high-level corruption, so any attempts to cover up the case would play extremely negative on Bulgaria’s image.

Feim Chaushev, deputy foreign minister from the MRF quota, resigned because of the ongoing scandal with his double first name. Chaushev reportedly used two first names – Petar and Feim, the first of which was given to him during the initiatives of the former communist party to integrate Bulgaria’s Turkish minority. At any rate, Chaushev didn’t really change his name until he entered the cabinet, but it turned out that he figured with two different names in official documents, including as deputy foreign minister, which is technically a violation. As a result, there was strong pressure Chaushev to be relieved of duty, which he decided to do himself. MRF indicated that it would not object against Chaushev’s resignation, though probably his place will be taken once again by a person from MRF.

We mention the scandal only because of Chaushev’s importance in external relations, since he was used a lot to communicate with Muslim countries, including during the talks with Libya on the release of the six Bulgarian medics, facing death penalty. In the end, it can be hardly spoken of corruption in this particular case, but the way the cabinet handled the case (or refused to handle it) suggests that the cabinet very easily falls into scandals, not being able to explain even simple situations. We believe that Chaushev’s case speaks mostly of negligence, as well as it indicates that even senior government officials prefer not to deal with the red tape that even simple acts as changing one’s first names create. However, the cabinet’s actions once again prove that it cannot easily avoid uncomfortable situations, which is going to reflect very strongly next year, during the general elections.

Josip Friscic, chairman of HSS, a ruling coalition partner, denied rumours that the party had considered leaving the cabinet because of its decision to postpone the application of the protected environmental fishing zone (ZERP) in the Adriatic. He told Vjesnik in an interview that HSS still considered ZERP to be a sovereign right of Croatia, so the party would defend its application anywhere. However, he said that it was clear EU negotiations would falter, in case Croatia hadn’t stepped down on the ZERP issue. Friscic added that communication with Prime Minister Ivo Sanader (HDZ) was very good, and he understood their position not to back the postponement of ZERP, both in the cabinet and in parliament. Fiscic defined the statements of SDP chairman Zoran Milanovic, leader of the largest opposition party, that the ruling coalition would break up because of ZERP as wishful thinking, showing clearly that the ruling coalition remains solid. Friscic’s words remain assuring, given that problems in the ruling coalition never seem to stop, after SDSS, representing ethnic Serbs, was unhappy with the recognition of Kosovo. Nevertheless, it appears that Sanader is handling the situation well, at least for the time being.

Minister for Kosovo Slobodan Samardzic (DSS) said over the weekend that the government submitted a proposal to the UNMIK on "creating an atmosphere for the functional separation of Serbs and Albanians in Kosovo." He said the proposed agreement was drafted by the foreign ministry and the ministry for Kosovo. Samardzic explained that the authorities in Belgrade should be allowed to take control in various fields (such as police, judiciary, and customs) in Kosovo where Serbs live. In at interview to the Politika newspaper, Samardzic said that Serbia recognized the jurisdiction of UNMIK on Kosovo, "but after the unilateral declaration of independence, only Serbs with the help of Serbs can implement these authorities."

Vecernje Novosti published on Monday (March 24) the proposed agreement on the joint implementation of UN Resolution 1244. The proposal is reportedly a part of the government's action plan that was activated when Kosovo declared independence. Simply put, the proposed agreement stipulates that Serbs living in Kosovo should be allowed to take control and responsibility for some aspects of their life in the province. Mostly DSS members of the Serbian government have been reiterating that they want to increase their presence in Kosovo, and this document proves that such intentions exist. Worth underlining that the proposal does not talk about a territorial separation, but implies some sort of autonomy for Kosovo Serbs. However, it is also important to note that several ministers from DS and G17 Plus have been claiming that they have not seen the proposal, giving the impression that many things are being presented in the name of the government even if they are not.

DS-G17 Plus will win 105 places in the 250-seat parliament, according to the poll of TNS Medium Gallup carried out on 6-13 March. In second place is SRS, which can count on 95 seats. Among the smaller parties, the seats in the parliament would be divided in the following way, DSS-NS – 26, SPS – 14, ethnic minority parties – 10. Note that the latter category of parties is not subject to a 5% threshold rule. LDP, which is measured to be supported by 3.1% of inquired, would not enter parliament, according to the results of the poll. DS leader Boris Tadic (Serbia's president) is positively assessed by 45.6% of respondents, while SRS deputy leader Tomislav Nikolic is the second most popular politicians in Serbia (41.1%).

The above results indicate very complicated post-election negotiations on building a new coalition. There are two dominant political parties, DS and SRS, which will not be in a position to form a government on their own. A DS-G17 Plus would have two main possibilities (assuming that LDP does not enter the parliament): a coalition with DSS-NS (131 seats in parliament) or a coalition with SPS and ethnic minority parties (129 seats). At this moment, in both cases, smaller parties on the DS-led election ticket would probably oppose co-operation with either DSS or SPS (meaning that the necessary 126 seats for parliamentary majority might not be reached). Also, a new government formed by DSS, G17 Plus and DSS-NS would probably be rather dysfunctional. It is important to note that DS has left wide open the possibility for co-operation with SPS. However, it would be necessary to show that SPS, a party that together with SRS ruled in 1990s, actually managed to reform itself and denounce its previous party leader Slobodan Milosevic. An ideologically cleaner government would be the one formed by SRS, DSS-NS and SPS (135 seats), as all of the parties can be defined as nationalistic, conservative, and populist. Arguably, none of those parties would mind if relations with the EU and US turn sour and if Serbia takes a long pause in the EU integration process.

One of the most important messages of this poll is that DSS-NS might loose its position of an exclusive kingmaker, meaning that SPS might join the list of smaller parties without whom there is no majority government. In our view, despite the fact that campaigning is still not in full swing (parliamentary elections will be held on May 11), neither DS-G17 Plus nor SRS would be able to win more than 50% of seats in the parliament, which it would be impossible to predict if smaller parties such as SPS and LDP would be able to enter parliament.

The Joint BiH Defence and Security Committee of the state-level parliament on Thursday (March 20th) for a second time gave a negative opinion on the two draft police reform laws that were to introduce a directorate for coordination of police bodies and independent and supervisory bodies of police structures in BiH. Six committee member voted against and six in favour. The rejection virtually suspended the two draft laws from parliamentary procedure. The House of Representatives agreed to resume debates on April 3rd, hoping the bills could be amended by that time so to enable sufficient support. Police reform is the last hurdle BiH should overcome in order to seal Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU.

In a statement, OHR spokesman Mario Brkic said that the postponement of the adoption of key police reform bills is only a further waste of time. "We once again call on BiH political parties to reach agreement on BiH's European path. We remind that EU path has no alternative," Brkic stressed. Over the weekend High Representative Miroslav Lajcak called on BiH politicians to use the time until April 3rd in the best possible way and amend police reform laws so they could command sufficient support in parliament. According to him, there should be no more "improvisations" on the issue. Lajcak said that the situation is becoming critical and April 3rd should bring a decision that is good for BiH

Meanwhile the delayed adoption of the key laws already had its first negative consequence for BiH. On Sunday, EU Justice Commissioner Franco Frattini said that BiH has been excluded from the visa regime liberalisation procedure valid for EU candidates because it is lagging behind with its police reform. In an interview with the Sarajevo-based newspaper Dnevni Avaz, Frattini said that BiH is the only Western Balkan country, which has been excluded from the procedure. Commenting on the situation on the Balkans after Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence, Frattini said that he sees risk of further tensions. "This is why additional military forces have been sent to Kosovo," the commissioner explained.

Rallies have been planned across the country to mark 23 years of the governing CPDM party today. The CPDM was founded in 1984 in replacement of the then governing CNU party, two years after power was handed down to President Paul Biya by the former president and CNU chairman Ahmadou Ahidjo. Party officials are expected to call for more support for Biya’s plan to change the constitution and make the number of presidential terms limitless. In Douala, where a ban on public manifestations is still in place, party officials have opted for indoor activities fearing a clash with opposition supporters. President Biya, who is the chairman of the CPDM, is not expected to make any public declarations.

The opposition leader in parliament, Alban Bagbin has proposed a constitutional amendment that will give parliament a mandate to participate in the drafting of the budget. He also suggested the creation of a budget office that would require legislative backing to offer analysis and alternatives on budgeting to achieve national objectives. Bagbin told a group of reporters at a workshop on strengthening accountability that the capacity of lawmakers need to be strengthened on issues of budget and governance for the promotion of good governance. He said improvement in the access to budget information will require the passage of the right to information bill which has been debated by parliament on two occasions, but has been shelved for now. Bagbin as a member of the public accounts committee of parliament has been very vocal on the issues of unaccountability displayed by many top government officials and would be happy if the Attorney general’s office would liaise with parliament to prosecute officials who are found liable for the misappropriation of funds meant for government project or wages and salaries.